Chapter 1704 Crazy Shale Oil

(Mourning for the heroes, remembering the dead, may the living work hard, and the mountains and rivers will be safe~)

As soon as she entered the house, she found Yang Sen was eating dinner at the dining table. Liu Yun still felt sorry for her husband, and she didn't care to talk to Yang Cheng, so she asked concerned, "Why are you eating so late?"

Yang Sen swallowed his food, "Don't mention it, I had a meeting all day and didn't eat anything."

Liu Yun sighed, "You too, our family is not short of money, why are you working so hard?"

Her mouth was full of complaints, but her hands kept putting vegetables in her husband's bowl. Yang Cheng couldn't help smiling when she saw this harmonious and loving scene.

In fact, when they entered, Yang Sen had already eaten almost everything, but his wife couldn't help but swallow the dishes, so he took the time to change the subject, "What did you say about shale oil when you just walked in?"

Yang Cheng spoke quickly, and broke out Aunt Qiu's matter in one breath. After listening, Yang Sen frowned and asked, "What's Lao Tan thinking? After spending most of his life indifferent to fame and wealth, he suddenly thought of doing business to make money? Or is he so unreliable?" Spectrum project."

Liu Yun was anxious, "Shale oil is unreliable?"

Only then did Yang Cheng remember that Aunt Qiu's husband's surname is Tan~

"No, no, I'm not saying that shale oil is unreliable. I mean that the project itself is unreliable for him to invest in this project. Even if he doesn't do research, he must at least find out whether there is a possibility of oil production?"

Liu Yun used the rhetoric of Yang Cheng to attack Yang Sen again, but Yang Sen's counterattack was much sharper, "To put it bluntly, I just want to take a gamble. Is the wasteland so easy to produce oil? This is the United States and not Saudi Arabia. Do you really think that people are sitting at home and oil is spraying from the ground?"

"Look at your mouth, I don't know the specific situation. Anyway, because of this incident, Lao Tan took out all the cash at home, and took out a few money from financial management and invested it in the project. Now he has lost all his money. He still owes nearly 1 million in salary and hasn't paid it.

When Qiu Ying came to me for lunch today, she almost cried~"

Yang Sen sighed, "Then you lent her the money?"

"That's not true, she didn't say anything, but she hoped that I could ask you for help to see if I could take the plate."

When Yang Cheng heard this, he strongly objected, "No, no, absolutely not, what are you kidding~"

Yang Sen actually meant the same thing, but after all, he is his wife and best friend,

He couldn't refuse too bluntly, why? "Although our family has invested in the energy field, we have never drilled oil ourselves, and it is shale oil that is very sensitive recently. My opinion is to borrow money or leave it alone~ "

Seeing that her husband and son were very opposed to it, Liu Yun couldn't help but feel worried. This is her best girlfriend, but then again, a girlfriend is a girlfriend, and the whole family can't be unhappy just because of a girlfriend's affection. In front of the family, no matter how deep the relationship is Girlfriends are shit too.

On this point, the three members of the Yang family have basically the same idea, which is exactly what the sentence said, it's not that one family doesn't stay in one house.

Just as Liu Yun was about to speak, her cell phone rang. She took it out of her bag and saw that it was Qiu Ying.

After connecting and saying a few words, Liu Yun said helplessly, "She asked me out~"

Yang Sen got up and loosened his belt, feeling a bit full from eating, "Do you want me to go with you?"

"No, if you go, she might not be able to say something, let me go~"

Yang Cheng said directly, "Let Andrew go with you, it's too late and it's not safe~"

This time Liu Yun did not refuse.

After his mother went out, Yang Sen asked Old John to smoke a cigar, half lying on the sofa and asked Yang Cheng, "Now the whole world is hyping shale oil~"

The Yangcheng chicken thief, after Old John finished roasting, he snatched it up and smoked it mouthful by mouthful.

He said, "U.S. shale oil has increased by almost 500,000 barrels per day since the end of last year, and it is estimated that it will continue to rise. Is the market demand really that big? Maybe there is, but the instigator behind it is Wall Street. Mining, Wall Street made at least 50 billion.

Huge investment has led to a sharp rise in mining activities, which has led to a drop in crude oil prices. Although private companies hope to attract investors and increase profits through increased production, the industry as a whole has been dragged down.

I can only say that if this situation continues, shale oil is not far from collapse~”

Yang Sen finally waited for the cigar to arrive and took a deep puff. "Some analysts have predicted that the shale oil industry will lose 20 billion US dollars next year, and suggested betting on traditional crude oil, expecting a sharp rebound in crude oil."

Yang Cheng pondered, "I am not optimistic about the rebound of crude oil, and it is not a wise move to buy the bottom.

Even if Wall Street cuts investment, it will take time to show up in production.

I didn’t know it before, but I invested in Beihai Petroleum. I know that for an oil field, it takes about half a year from the decision to mine to the launch of the product. The cycle is too long. In other words, if the decision to increase production is made, the economic impact will be at least half a year. can only be seen later. "

Yang Sen bit his cigar, put his hands behind his head, puffed out smoke, and said, "If oil prices continue to slump, Wall Street will definitely shift investment direction. Without the profits of the stock market, only relying on the profits of shale oil exploration With low profits, I am afraid that it will not take long for the miners to give up."

Yang Cheng stood up with a cigar in his mouth, took off his coat and put it on the back of the sofa, "Yes, not only shale oil, but the entire oil industry is the same. The cost of mining is too high. I don't know if I don't do it. In the past, oil prices When it was more than $100/barrel, I thought that these dry oil companies could make a considerable profit without breaking a sweat.

However, I now know that all along, the cash income earned by these oil and gas companies is simply not enough to support crude oil exploration activities. "

Yang Sen joked with a smile, "Do what you do and love what you do, now you are also a loyal fan of the energy industry?"

Yang Cheng waved his hand, "It's two different things. My fundamental purpose of investing in energy is to make money and rationalize asset allocation, but what I'm worried about now is the collapse of the entire energy industry.

Insufficient profits have forced oil and gas companies to borrow in order to maintain basic production capacity.

Now the total amount of junk bonds for the whole year has soared to 70 billion US dollars, a year-on-year increase of more than 130%.

It is foreseeable that for at least the next five years, the total debt of the U.S. energy industry will continue to rise. Breaking through 200 billion is just a matter of sneezing, and it will take no effort at all.

When oil prices were at a high level and continued to rise, large Wall Street investment banks, including JPMorgan, Wells Fargo and Citigroup, were more optimistic about the credit status of US energy companies and increased their lending to energy companies.

The amount of leveraged loans exceeds RMB 30 billion. The more loans are made, the more repayments are made. These oil and gas companies are forced to exploit crazily. While the production volume soars, the stock price is depressed. However, the increasing debt pressure has almost emptied the cash flow of oil and gas companies.

While the amount of extraction increases, the cost of extraction will inevitably rise. The cost of shale oil extraction itself is higher than that of traditional crude oil. I am afraid that they will be the first to collapse under the pressure.

Then came the collapse of the entire industry.

Unless oil prices soar in the future, helping oil and gas companies to obtain higher returns and reduce borrowing, otherwise the debt will only snowball and grow. Who will pay for these debts?

It seems to be the federal government, but it is actually an ordinary taxpayer. "

Yang Cheng finished the analysis in one breath, took a deep puff of the cigarette, and said in an uncertain tone, "Dad, do you think it's appropriate for me to sell the equity of Beihai Petroleum now?"

"Sell North Sea Oil? Will other shareholders agree?"

"Then unite them and sell them together, not all of them, of course, but keep a small part, after all, Delta Air Lines still needs to purchase low-priced fuel from North Sea Oil.

By the way, Delta's Bastian wants to buy the Philadelphia refinery, and I agree, which also needs cheap crude from North Sea Oil. "

Yang Sen pondered for a long time, then finally shook his head and said, "I can't give you any advice on this matter, you can think about it yourself. From my point of view, in the past 10 years, oil is still the most profitable industry in the world. Oil prices may fall into a downturn in 2019, but the governments of various countries will not allow this to continue. Low oil prices mean a continued economic downturn, and no country wants to see such a situation.”

Yang Cheng was really entangled. Selling and cashing out would undoubtedly be more beneficial now, but the future is uncertain. Once the oil price rebounded sharply, it would be a big loss.

Thinking of this, he suddenly froze. It seemed that what he said just now was wishful thinking to expect a rebound. He didn't expect to slap himself in the face so soon.

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