Chapter 244 Southeast Asian Economic Crisis
"Since the 1960s, developed countries in Europe and the United States have transferred labor-intensive industries to developing countries. First, Xiangjiang, Baodao, Singapore, and South Korea seized this opportunity to promote economic development. They were called the Four Asian Tigers. In the 1900s, Thailand, Malaysia, the Philippines and Indonesia also seized this trend, attracted a large amount of foreign capital and technology, and quickly embarked on the road of development, known as the Four Asian Tigers..." Many of these histories are attributed to Shen Long. What I have personally experienced in the world of "Blood Romance" can be said clearly.
"In the early stage of development, Thailand's foreign exchange control system was relatively strict, and national speculators had no chance to operate." Yes, Shen Long predicted the occurrence of the Southeast Asian crisis in this paper. Now it is 1996, and Soros began to arrange countermeasures. Thailand's offensive will involve Xiangjiang in the future. He wrote this paper to show his ability, and secondly, to remind the country, hoping to attract attention through Professor Lian Jing and reduce some losses.
"That being the case, why did you predict that Soros would launch an offensive against Thailand?" Professor Lian Jing asked. He could tell a few things by looking up some information about the previous situations, but the key point is why he made such a prediction.
"This is inseparable from our need to take back Xiangjiang. After entering the 1990s, as 1997 approached, there were more and more immigrants from Xiangjiang, and due to the connivance of the United Kingdom, the financial order of Xiangjiang became more and more chaotic. Thailand believes that it has seen the replacement of Xiangjiang. The opportunity to become the financial center of Asia." Speaking of this, Shen Long couldn't help but sneer, this is called overestimation.
"For this reason, Thailand has changed its financial system to allow international financial funds to enter Thailand without being subject to the supervision of the Bank of Thailand. This means that international funds can freely enter and exit Thailand and attack their securities and financial markets. Foreign financial institutions are free to receive the baht, which has no defensiveness in the international currency market."
"Earlier, Soros had tried to attack Thailand, but because Thailand's economy was performing well at that time, international financial institutions had confidence in Thailand, and the Bank of Thailand's timely intervention, Soros did not take advantage; but This year, Thailand plans to completely liberalize regulation..."
"It can be expected that international hot money will pour in frantically. In a short period of time, Thailand's real estate market and stock market will usher in a surge. Housing prices are rising day by day, and stock prices continue to soar; but these are groundless Yes, that is to say, the entry of international hot money will lead to a huge bubble in the Thai economy, creating a false prosperity..."
"And once this false prosperity is punctured and the bad debt problems of Thai companies and banks are exposed, Soros will launch the final attack, leading the international hot money behind him to bring Thailand's economy to the bottom, because before resisting Soros During the attack, Thailand's foreign exchange reserves were exhausted, so Thailand has little power to fight back..." Shen Long concluded, during which he also cited a lot of data to explain his point of view.
"The thinking logic is clear and the argumentation process is rigorous. From the perspective of the thesis itself, it is indeed well written and can also prove your ability.
Lian Jing nodded in agreement, but it can be seen that his approval is only for the paper itself, and it does not mean that he is completely convinced of Shen Long's judgment.
This is also a reasonable thing. In his position, he must be cautious in his words and deeds, because this may affect the changes in the country's financial and economic policies, and he can't be careless.
"And I judge that Soros's goal is not just Thailand." In a moment of excitement, Shen Long said some things that were not written in the paper, "In addition to Thailand, the financial systems of some countries and economies in Southeast Asia are also not good enough." Healthy, Soros has planned for a long time, he will definitely not let go of this good opportunity."
"After defeating Thailand, he will definitely turn to deal with Indonesia, Singapore, Malaysia, and Xiangjiang. These countries and regions also lack defense capabilities, and even Russia will be affected. However, considering Russia's particularity, those international speculators want to discuss It’s not much cheaper.” Russia directly announced the devaluation of the ruble, making international speculators lose their money, but Russia has also fallen into economic difficulties and cannot get rid of it for a long time. It is really hard to say whether Putin’s coming to power in the future has anything to do with this matter.
"So, what impact do you think this economic crisis will have on China? Also, you just mentioned most countries and regions in Southeast Asia, why didn't you mention China and Taiwan? Will Soros attack us?" Professor Lian Jing It's getting more and more interesting.
"Soros may launch a tentative attack, but it will not achieve much results, because our country has a large amount of foreign exchange reserves, and at the same time, the economy is developing well, which is not comparable to those small countries in Thailand, and after Soros launched such a huge attack, It’s hard to say how much energy is left to launch an attack on the country.” Historically, Soros has not taken much advantage of the country, and the country will take action to help Xiangjiang maintain stability.
"This economic crisis is a wake-up call for us. After nearly 30 years of construction since the reform and opening up, China has made indisputable achievements in the financial field, including financial services such as banks, stock markets, futures and derivatives. The role of tools in economic life is becoming more and more prominent; but on the other hand, due to the short development time and lack of experience, there are many problems in the financial market, and there are even various crises lurking."
"Through the study of this coming crisis, it has an important reference function for the construction of China's financial system; at the same time, it can also use this opportunity to deepen financial ties with Southeast Asian countries and regions, and expand China's influence on the regional economy. ..." Shen Long talked about the many measures that the country will take in the future, and deliberately used a few very complicated mathematical formulas during the period.
He knew that he had a background in liberal arts, and the study of economics requires a high degree of mathematical attainment. Professor Lian Jing must have doubts in his heart. Fortunately, he himself studied computer science. After advanced studies, although the mathematical skills cannot be compared with those genius mathematicians, it is enough to meet the needs of economics research.
"These formulas are used very cleverly. It is really rare for a liberal arts student to have such deep attainments in the fields of economics and mathematics." Professor Lian Jing applauded, now he finally believes that Shen Long himself wrote the paper, " Well, you have passed this interview."