Chapter 1151 Overt Conspiracy Vs. Overt Conspiracy

In fact, after hearing the news just now, Chang Haonan's mood can be expressed in one sentence.

Thanks to the American veteran for the assist! ! !

Even if agriculture develops into the 21st century, it cannot completely get rid of its dependence on nature.

Therefore, it is normal for the international grain market to experience price fluctuations due to climate and disaster impacts.

However, this "natural disaster" only accurately covered the main soybean and corn producing areas, and did not even affect wheat. It was really too obedient.

Soybeans and corn happen to be the two crops that China imports the most and is most dependent on foreign countries.

It is not difficult to guess that this should be the starting move of a combo.

The purpose is to use a sophisticated futures trading to fully grasp the non-staple agricultural products market that China promised to open when it joined the WTO.

Although it is not possible to grasp the lifeblood of China, it is definitely a seven-inch hit.

Quite a vicious strategy.

But it must also be admitted that it is very effective.

It is a steady and steady conspiracy.

Due to the triple debuff of insufficient production + insufficient reserves + open market, even if the Americans reveal every step in advance, it will be difficult for China to resist.

But from another perspective, the other party's actions will also completely expose the fundamental problem of China's lack of arable land.

This will undoubtedly prompt the swinging balance in the minds of decision-makers to tilt violently in the direction of Chang Haonan.

When he thought of this, Chang Haonan couldn't hold back the curve of his mouth...

Ding Zhongli, who was next to him, was also keenly aware of the change in Chang Haonan's expression.

"Academician Chang?"

He called out tentatively.

"Oh, nothing."

Chang Haonan quickly suppressed his smile, but the uncontrollable joy could still be heard in his tone:

"Let's continue... where were we talking about?"

In fact, Ding Zhongli had already made some guesses at that moment.

Of course, he had not read the script in advance and was not a financial practitioner, so he could not guess the subsequent actions of the Americans in the futures market.

But judging from the trend, it is a certainty that China will transform into a net food importer in 2004.

The rising prices of international agricultural product futures stuck at the current node are obviously not good for China.

Under such circumstances, Chang Haonan's first reaction after hearing the news was to be happy...

Combined with the experimental field in western Mongolia...

It undoubtedly shows that the other party has once again made the right bet on the research direction.

Thinking of this, he smacked his lips with emotion and thought to himself:

"No wonder they are making rapid progress..."

However, seeing that Chang Haonan didn't seem to want to dwell too much on this matter, he also changed the topic and used this excuse to talk about his old profession:

"I just mentioned climate change... Actually, Mr. Chang, the extreme climate mentioned in the news just now most likely does not exist at all."

Although Chang Haonan thinks so too, he still wants to hear real expert opinions.

Then he asked with a little curiosity:

"How to say?"

However, the other party did not give any meteorological or geological explanation, but directly changed the subject:

"The Americans are probably trying to use this incident to put pressure on us to force our country to make concessions in the next phase of climate agreement negotiations."

It has to be said that because his own interests are related to farmland, Chang Haonan did not consider the problem from other angles.

Now that Ding Zhongli suddenly said this, I felt that it made sense——

Even if it is not the main purpose, it can be used as a side note.

“But hasn’t the Kyoto Protocol been signed a long time ago?”

Chang Haonan has a rough idea of ​​the disputes between countries on emissions issues, but it is obviously impossible to compare with professionals like Ding Zhongli.

"The Kyoto Protocol is essentially closer to a supplement to the Framework Convention on Climate Change. Most of the provisions in it are not mandatory and the content is relatively rough."

The latter explained:

"In particular, when the treaty was signed in 1997, because we were classified as developing countries, we were not required to make any commitment to reduce emissions..."

"However, my country's rapid development in recent years has made some developed countries feel threatened. Therefore, on the one hand, they are increasing their efforts to exaggerate the serious consequences of climate change. On the other hand, they are also promoting internationally that we have entered the so-called 'quasi-developed country'. The country's ranks should shoulder the responsibility of reducing emissions together with them..."

Even though Chang Haonan had been mentally prepared for a long time, when he heard this, he still couldn't help but blurt out:

"That's bullshit!"

China's development speed in this timeline is indeed faster than that of the previous generation, but in 2003, the per capita GDP was only 16,000 yuan, equivalent to a level of just over 2,000 US dollars.

For comparison, even next door South Korea, which is generally considered to be the lower limit of developed countries, has a per capita GDP of nearly US$15,000.

To classify China as "quasi-developed" at this point in time is to tell lies with open eyes and no shame at all.

Of course, it's exciting.

Chang Haonan is not going to lose his mind because of this trivial matter.

After calming down a little, he turned to ask:

"But the Kyoto Protocol is, after all, an old document that was signed seven years ago. No matter how many revisions are made, the content cannot change..."

Seeing Chang Haonan's reaction, Ding Zhongli secretly breathed a sigh of relief, then nodded:

"In fact, using the contents of the Kyoto Protocol as an argument should be just a means to divert our attention."

"I personally speculate that their real purpose is to exert pressure in the fourth assessment of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which will be launched at the end of this year, so as to promote restrictions on our country in the next climate agreement... or even restrict all in one step. Greenhouse gas emissions in developing countries…”

After saying this, perhaps because he was worried that Chang Haonan would not realize the seriousness of the matter, he just paused for a moment and continued:

"To tell you the truth, my background is in geological research, and I am very aware of the various catastrophic extreme climates that the earth has experienced in the past hundreds of millions of years... Therefore, I am not opposed to reducing greenhouse gas emissions, but in In the foreseeable future, modern human civilization can only be based on fossil energy. To put it more bluntly, the right to emission is the right to development, so the prerequisite for emission reduction is to ensure fairness.”

“As a country with a population of 1.2 billion, even if our total emissions are the same as those of the United States, it is equivalent to only a quarter of their per capita emissions rights. This does not include the stocks that developed countries have emitted without restraint in the past 150 years. …”

Ding Zhongli turned around and looked directly at Chang Haonan, who was half a head taller than himself:

"Academician Chang... If their conspiracy succeeds, it will be equivalent to locking the upper limit of our development..."

"So, what Director Ding means is that you want me to express my support for you on this matter?"

Chang Haonan asked straightly.

Ding Zhongli was slightly stunned when his purpose was revealed, but then he regained his original calmness:

"That's right."

"You and I are both technical people. We cannot function alone in international political situations like the IPCC. Therefore, we must make decision-makers aware of the seriousness of the situation so that we can show the toughness we should have at critical moments." Attitude, it's just that...our Institute of Geology and Geophysics alone still lacks influence, and if you, Academician Chang, can join, you may be able to change the views of your superiors."

It should be said that there is nothing wrong with Ding Zhongli's entire idea.

This is why he insisted on adding the content that "global warming trends are beneficial to our country to a certain extent" in the assessment report.

Because this is the confidence to flip the table during the negotiation process.

And as long as we are not afraid of overturning the table, even if we cannot achieve true fairness in emission rights, we can at least achieve relatively favorable conditions.

However, after Chang Haonan lowered his head and thought deeply, he did not immediately give a positive answer, but asked:

"Why can't we be more direct?"

"Um?"

Ding Zhongli obviously didn't expect the other party to give such a reply.

"I mean, of course we have to dare to flip the table, but we can't use flipping the table as the only means."

Chang Haonan continued:

"It's like nuclear weapons. It's indeed the strongest trump card, but it's impossible to directly face nuclear threats in any situation. At most, it can only guarantee that the country will not be subjugated and the species will be exterminated... We also need to build conventional military forces such as imaginary hostility and so on. Only with strength can we ensure that we don’t suffer in details and small things.”

Although Ding Zhongli did not come from a military background, this explanation is easy to understand and is not difficult to understand:

"You mean, take the initiative in the IPCC's fourth assessment?"

Chang Haonan nodded:

"Frankly speaking, I don't believe that developed countries...especially the United States, will really reduce carbon emissions as promised."

"As you just said, the IPCC's assessment work is absolutely dominated by developed countries... Doesn't it mean that they are both athletes and referees, and whoever ranks the most will rank as many as they want?"

It can be said that he has seen too many similar things.

"Then what you said is indeed correct..."

Hearing this, Ding Zhongli sighed helplessly:

"Although we have room to argue with our arguments, the most we can do is use domestic ground monitoring data to refute. As for the situation abroad...it is true that they can say whatever they want."

But Chang Haonan became excited instead:

"So, if we can find evidence to expose this during the fourth evaluation process, wouldn't it be equivalent to providing our superiors with a conventional weapon that can flip the table?"