Chapter 586 The Gold Standard Reform of the General Trend

In this world, there are always people who are happy and who are disappointed.

The biggest losers of the London Peace Conference were undoubtedly the Ottoman Empire and the Kingdom of Poland. The former lost their city and land, their people were exhausted, and they were already half-dead, while the latter even gained autonomy.

Leaving aside the details, in terms of overall strategy, the five countries of Britain, France, Austria, Russia and Russia are all winners, and they have achieved their strategic goals.

The performance of the Russians is particularly outstanding, taking benefits from both ends, as if the mighty Russian Empire had come back.

But Alexander II, who is considered to be the biggest winner, is really not happy now. The recovery of lost ground this time has greatly boosted the morale of the army, which was a good thing.

It's a pity that the tsarist government can't afford it, and it's all made up of one word - "poor". After the battle is over, the reward for meritorious deeds is always indispensable, and the pension must also be given a little.

The destructive power of the war is huge. The lost land recovered by the tsarist government also needs to invest funds to restore people's livelihood. There is no return in the short term.

These all require money, which seems inconspicuous, but in fact it is not enough without hundreds of millions of rubles.

Alexander II has long since given up the hope of lending money. International financial institutions are all afraid of them. Whoever lends them money is a fool.

Saint Petersburg, Hermitage

Alexander II asked uncertainly: "Can the reform of the gold standard really help us get through the financial crisis?"

At present, only Britain and Austria have completed the reform of the gold standard among the major powers. Everyone knows that the gold standard is conducive to stabilizing the currency value and increasing the international competitiveness of the currency, but everyone is still waiting and watching.

It's not that I don't want to follow suit, but the question is what should I do if the gold reserves are not enough? Britain and Austria monopolize more than 75% of the world's gold, making other countries desperate.

The Russian Empire is considered good, because the market purchasing power is low, and the Russians have little demand for foreign industrial and commercial products. After the foreign exchange created by the export of agricultural products has smoothed out the expenditure, it is still in a state of overrun.

However, this kind of good days only lasted until the Prussian-Russian War. Because of the war, the Tsarist government's finances deteriorated and it owed a lot of foreign debts. In order to repay the debts, a large amount of gold and silver began to flow out.

The outflow of gold and silver led to domestic deflation and further deterioration of government finances. In order to avoid the intensification of the crisis, the tsarist government was forced to declare bankruptcy.

After a few years of recuperation, the Russian Empire took a sigh of relief. Through diplomatic means, most of the debts were erased, and an agreement was reached with the British to use grain deductions for repayment, and the economy of the Russian Empire gradually normalized.

However, the financial problem was still the biggest problem for the tsarist government. In order to change the financial predicament, the tsarist government issued paper rubles with the help of Austria in 1871.

This is just a test of the water. The first batch of issuance is only 50 million rubles. The gold and silver complex system is implemented. The tsarist government's reserves are very sufficient, which are quickly digested by the market.

As the Russian-Austrian relationship deteriorated, the financial community of the tsarist government tended to cooperate with the British, and the situation took a sharp turn for the worse.

Without the endorsement of Austria, the circulation of the second batch of paper rubles was too large, and it was cold in the capital market. In order to keep the ratio, the tsarist government had to stop printing.

Britain and Russia had an agreement that the ruble would join the pound-gold system, and then the tsarist government had to reform the gold standard.

The Russian Empire is also a major producer of gold and silver in the world. The domestic economy is not large, and the import and export trade is generally in a balanced state. In theory, the tsarist government has no problem in carrying out the reform of the gold standard.

This is only theoretical, when coupled with the credibility of the tsarist government, this situation has changed. International capital does not recognize it at all. Unless it is linked to the international currency, the tsarist government alone cannot complete the reform of the gold standard.

This also involves the issue of currency settlement. Whether it is linked to the British pound or Aegis, people are very welcome. The conditions are very simple and can only be settled in other people's currency.

No matter who it is close to, the Russian Empire will inevitably be sheared. Alexander II didn't care about being sheared, he was more concerned about how much benefit it would bring after the currency reform, and whether it could get rid of the financial crisis.

Chancellor of the Exchequer Kristan Wahl: "Your Majesty, after theoretically completing the currency reform, we can obtain a seigniorage of 52 million to 55 million gold rubles every year.

This amount of money continues to increase as the economy grows. It will help a lot to improve our financial situation. "

(Note: 1 new ruble = 0.774 grams of gold)

More than 50 million gold rubles, this number is not small, more than one-tenth of the fiscal revenue of the tsarist government.

To keep the seigniorage growing, in addition to economic growth, there must be enough gold.

Kristanvall is not worried about the reserve fund, and the annual gold output of the Russian Empire is still enough for the reserve fund. Otherwise, he would not dare to reform the gold standard.

You must know that after the currency reform, the newly issued golden ruble will be pegged to the British pound. The exchange rate fluctuates and changes, and the currency value cannot be stabilized without sufficient reserves.

After hesitating for a while, Alexander II made a decision: "Then let's start! But when working with the British, you must be vigilant and not be trapped by them."

Taking this step means that Russia and Austria have begun to separate financially, and it also marks that the end of the Russian-Austrian alliance is not far away.

There is no way, it's all about interests. The tsarist government disliked Austria's low bid, and Franz felt that the Russians were too greedy and invested too much to recover the cost.

The French people in the original time and space were pitted and cried, the tsarist government fell, and they owed huge debts.

Drift, the French consortium has been hit hard.

With lessons learned, Franz naturally chose to be cautious. The risk of investing in the Russians in Austria is even greater than that in the French. With the Russians' style, no one can guarantee that the debts will be large to a certain extent, and the Russians will provoke a war between the two countries in order to default on their debts.

Of course, the fact that the Austrian financial world does not have the richness of the British financial world is also an important factor. After all, Austria itself has a huge demand for funds and is unable to fill the hole with money for the Russians.

If the tsarist government cannot get out of the financial crisis as soon as possible, once the currency reform is completed and the ruble is tied to the pound, it is unknown whether the British will still lend money.

The debt between Russia and Austria is already a dangerous figure. Franz dare not take hundreds of millions of Aegis to accompany the Russians to take risks. Once lost, Austria's economy will also be hit hard.

...

It is not only the Russians who want to reform the gold standard, but also the French more urgently.

In recent years, the production of silver has been increasing, and the exchange ratio of gold and silver has also been changing. This is a big problem for the multi-standard currency.

Affected by the exchange rate of gold and silver, the currency value of the franc also changes from time to time, which can make the merchants engaged in international trade cry.

The unstable value of the franc has undoubtedly weakened the overseas competitiveness of French goods. This change is getting worse as international trade booms.

Before 1854, France's total foreign export trade was more than 1.5 times that of Austria. By 1870, the total foreign export trade between the two countries was almost the same, and now it has been directly counterattacked by Austria.

Of course, there are natural resources advantages. For example, the Austrian agricultural product processing industry has developed, increasing the added value of products and driving the growth of exports. And the benefits of being the first to start the second industrial revolution.

The unstable value of the franc is also an important factor. In order to avoid the uncertain risks brought about by changes in the currency value, under the same conditions, many capitalists prefer to choose Yingao products.

In the past five years, the average annual growth rate of export trade between Britain and Austria is no less than 3%, while that of France is only a measly 0.8%, and this figure is still declining.

Are French industrial and commercial products of poor quality? the answer is negative. Except for a few industries, there is no age gap in the industrial technology of Britain, France and Austria.

Now the market competition has not reached the white-hot stage, and everyone maintains relatively high profits, otherwise they will not grow together.

However, it is an indisputable fact that France is gradually falling behind. The market share of French products in the international market is getting smaller and smaller.

Of course, compared with the original time and space, the situation in France is still much better now, and the domestic economy has not been hit hard.

In order to increase the competitiveness of export commodities, the reform of the currency value of the franc has gradually been put on the agenda. It was Napoleon IV who led the reform of the gold standard of the franc.

This can also be regarded as the political legacy left to him by Napoleon III. As long as the reform of the franc gold standard is completed and the international competitiveness of French commodities is increased, he can gain the support of the capitalists.

As early as 1870, the French government began to prepare for the reform of the gold standard and continued to buy gold from the international market. There is no way, who will let France's gold production run short?

God did not favor France this time. In addition to the lack of coal, the gold production in the French colonies was also very low.

If you don't have one, you can buy it. Compared with the hard-working tsarist government, the French government can be said to have deep pockets.

After several years of preparation, the French have gathered 800 tons of gold, and Napoleon IV still disliked it enough.

This number is already a lot for most countries, but it is still far from the UK and Austria.

Moreover, given the current economic size of the Great French Empire, it is really not much to take 800 tons of gold as a reserve. The bottom line of Napoleon IV's heart is one thousand tons. If the reserve fund is low, it will be troublesome for someone to speculate on the exchange rate of the franc.

Paris, Versailles

Napoleon IV asked in disbelief: "Why, the market can't receive gold?"

This is definitely a big news, at least the price of gold will soar greatly.

Chancellor of the Exchequer Allen explained bitterly: "Your Majesty, many countries have carried out gold standard reforms in recent years, and everyone is rushing to buy gold in the market.

At present, the main gold producing areas in the world are in the hands of Britain and Austria. They deliberately control the outflow of gold, and the amount of gold in circulation on the market is seriously insufficient.

In recent years, due to the lack of gold circulation, the price of gold has continued to rise, and the gold-silver exchange ratio has risen from 1:18.6 last year to 1:23.5 now.

Even at this price, it's hard for us to buy enough gold. At present, the annual outflow of gold in the international market is only two or three hundred tons, which is not enough for everyone. "

There is no way, there are really many countries that have recently reformed the gold standard.

In 1873, the Nordic Federation began the gold standard reform, followed by the German Federal Empire, the Kingdom of Prussia also announced the gold standard reform, and now a Russian Empire has been added.

Putting aside the Russian Empire, the domestic circulation of gold can basically meet the needs of currency reform, and the remaining countries are not major gold producing countries.

The gold output can be insufficient, but the reserve fund for issuing currency must be sufficient, so it can only be bought in the international market.

At the critical moment of the reform of the gold standard in European countries, it happened that the capitals of Britain and Austria jointly speculated on gold and made huge profits from it.

It should not be said that it is just right, it is

inevitable result. Capital is profit-seeking, and the bamboo sticks that come to the door will not be knocked in vain.

In this context, not only the French are short of gold, but other countries that are reforming the gold standard are also facing the problem of insufficient gold.